Iran

Curious opinion piece by an academic, from Exeter College in Devon England, published in Al Jazeera. Muhanad Seloom sees the slap back on Iran as good, containing their reach back to their own borders. His spin about everything puts it in the right column, but he ignored the life lost, the ecological damage. I don't know how he imagines the son being installed means it's automatically being weakened. Might be strengthened to change, and get younger. The son was put in charge, do you really know that much about him? Well, he might. I think he might, no wikipedia page to list where Seloom was born, I wonder. Is he fundamentally against Iran as being an Iraqi? He disclosed he lived 4 years in Iraq. He speaks Kurdish, is he a Kurd minority from Iran who doesn't like the power? It's interesting, I can't find out where he's born.

I think he underestimates the strategic patience the regime has, it's willingness to let their people suffer. They routinely slaughter many. 

Seloom seems to think reducing their missile stockpile and firing capacity and whatnot is worth it. 

Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg in the Atlantic (Archive) think, "not only at degrading military capability but also at creating conditions for political change."

"The early results are promising, though much remains unfinished." They reference the 12 day war with Israel last year. That they can fly planes over Iran unthreatened, for the most part. 

The Atlantic has the same logic as Seloom: "The announced selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader may accelerate that erosion rather than stabilize it. A polished cleric in the mold of Hassan Rouhani could again provide the IRGC political cover and revive illusions of moderation abroad. Mojtaba offers no such illusion. His elevation signals a harsher, weaker, more corrupt order—and therefore a more fragile one."

I can't help but think they're amplifying administration points, and they're tacitly passing on a positive view of a corrupt and troubled administration in the USA. The military must see themselves as separate from ICE murders of US citizens in cold blood. They have a more Hobbesian view of life, brutish and short. Today is a good day to die. They only put forward positive details: "The movement of the USS Gerald R. Ford strike group down the Red Sea suggests that naval capacity is being positioned for the next phase." 

My Iranian friend was telling me to visit the island there in the Red Sea, as way of coming to Iran that doesn't threaten the regime. They would think that because I'm from America, I was a spy. I do want to learn about iranian literature, theater, poetry, music, food, rituals, customs and culture.

Friend in Iran has his communications blocked by Iran, which shuts down the access to the internet on the slightest provocation, and cutting off the internet is one of many fundamentalist punishments, infinitely better than murdering all the youths protesting.

We meditated most days together, and talk the Dharma when the internet is not cut off. He learned English listening to Buddhists talking on YouTube. I think he could tell the war was coming, he felt the tension. I'm personally letting this whole thing upset me more than I want it to, and writing about it is a little bit of a way of mastering it. He doesn't live near Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, and the city he lives in, he lives just out of town. I would never know if there was some secret facility that USA would target, like a school for little girls. 

Common Dreams and Steven Harper has an analysis that brings out other aspects of this situation. 

I'm pretty sure our allies in Europe wish for the regime change in the USA, as well. 

I love the people of Israel, and I love the people of Iran and I want neither to hurt each other. Stop war.

Against military action in Iran

 

I'm not sure what those 27% are thinking, or are they just going off vibes?

The USA has lost it's exceptionalism. Maybe it never was exceptional. From 1776 to 2025 it was an idealistic and virtuous country, sometimes less so, that narrative you can punch holes in it, but under Trump there is no righteousness or exceptionalism. We're just a grubby selfish country. How would invading be in our own best interest, or their best interest? The answer is it wouldn't.

Iran has squashed it's resistance, it's minority leadership, the shadow government waiting to take over that occurs in a democracy. If you take out the government, there aren't people waiting to take over. I think that's one thing democracies take for granted, that there are lots of people waiting in the wings waiting for their chance. The people who would potentially take over are in the administration, and that's problematic, it's not a change in regime. This is why Afghan failed when the US pulled out. Nobody is training to rule, except those ruling. So many people have left. You could have a bunch of people return to Iran but that's a problem too because they haven't been there. You have to live there to organically take over.

Trump just wants to distract from the bad economy, the low approval ratings in the worst way, and he's quite capable of doing the worst things. That's why he needs to be impeached for real as soon as possible. The midterms are coming and he's trying to cheat as much as possible to throw off the will of the people. It's all the wrong reasons for getting involved. 

I look at the Times and of course we've done something. "explosions across several cities, including Qom, Kermanshah, Isfahan and Karaj, according to Iran’s semiofficial Fars News Agency" (NY Times).

I think this is a major mistake.

"Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel, the Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement on Telegram. It also launched missile attacks targeting U.S. military bases in the region, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, and the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, Fars reported."

It's the United States job not to provoke these attacks with their aggressive deployments.

Republicans will say anything to get elected, and then do something different. Read their behavior.

Links:

German report

BBC

Israel

Iran

They cut off the internet January 8th, to try and dampen the protesting. It hasn't worked.

Saw a video. People in Iran hate Israel and USA. USA is said to have led to the 1979 revolution, which is why things are the way they are now. 

Wall Street Journal (Archive) account of the death of Robina Aminian. Another martyr for Iran.

In the Guardian Iranian director Jafar Panahi says this:

“In other dictatorships around the world, you will see that there will be at least a few people who will act based on rationality and who will not let it get to this point,” he said, speaking via his interpreter Sheida Dayani. “But unfortunately in this system there is no rationality. All they can think of is crackdown and how they can stay in power even just one more day. The last thing they’re thinking about is the people.”

Trump is trying to insert himself, even though 70% Americans say leave them alone (skeet).

Supposedly the Center For Human Rights In Iran is in NYC, so they're not going to know much, and responsible for bloated claims of deaths. 

Iran charges for the return of bodies they have killed (BBC). I've also read they include a rape charge of the virgins they rape so they can kill them. That's a particularly nasty detail. 

Politico: "...anyone who expects Iran’s next regime to be democratic or peaceful may be very disappointed."

"...a coup d’état carried out by existing officials who want to put a stop to the country’s political and economic crisis. Whatever system they set up next is unlikely to be free — coups rarely lead to democratic transitions."

"Iran has no single, unified opposition movement that can slide in and take charge if the regime’s leaders are suddenly assassinated. Instead, Iran’s opposition is divided, and its leadership is largely in jail. What’s more, Iran would lack a clear head of state if the entire regime were to suddenly disintegrate from just domestic pressure." (Politico op cit)

Vali Nasr: “There is no force out there that can actually take over in a day-after scenario.” (Politico op cit)

"...the regime has ruthlessly snuffed out its competition, making it impossible to cleanly replace. What comes next may therefore not be better. In fact, it could be worse." (Politico op cit)

"The American Revolution produced a democracy. But it was something of an exception. The French Revolution was followed by an era of violent turmoil and mass executions now known as the Reign of Terror. The Russian Revolution followed a similar path: The Bolsheviks ended the Romanov dynasty, only to replace it with the even-more repressive Soviet Union. None of the Arab Spring revolutions have produced a lasting democracy (although Syria’s fate is still uncertain). Iran’s 1979 revolution downed the Shah, but it created the Islamic Republic." (Politico op cit)

"(It has been just under three years since the “Women, Life, Freedom” uprisings swept across the country in late 2022 and early 2023.) The Iranian regime has displayed remarkable unity in response to all these demonstrations, which is one reason why it has endured previous predictions of its demise. But when annual inflation exceeds 50 percent, as it is now, it is reasonable to wonder how many times the government can call upon security forces to fire into crowds." (Politico op cit)

There are positive and negative scenarios. They go over many in the Politico article. 

"A senior Iranian health ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told the Times that about 3,000 people had been killed across the country since the protests began in late December." (New York Times Gift Article)

Demonstration in NYC (Reddit).

USA bombs Iran

If there was some mechanism for holding leaders accountable for murder, I would love that.

The current regime has done many harmful things, I could see this coming, with the tacit support of jingoistic New York Times. It's been quite a disillusioning time for this old fellow.

Links:

Heather Cox Richardson

I'm not going to link the Times which seems to think amplifying Taco Bone Spurs lies is valid journalism. 

Guardian

Iran

In the tit for tat wars in the middle east, Israel struck at Iran yesterday, and today Iran is striking back at Israel. 

I came across this: "According to Hamas’s plan, after its attack on Israel, the remaining components of Iran’s axis of evil — Hamas in the West Bank, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Shiite militias in Syria, Iraq and Iran — would join in a regional war with the ultimate goal of destroying the one and only Jewish state." (NY Times by Benny Gantz)

I've read that Russia and its allies just want to sew the seeds of disunity in countries that aren't ruled by strong men, ie functional western democracies. They don't have to win asymmetrical wars, they just cut into the unity of open democratic states, drain off some of their unity and power by sewing chaos. Iran agreed to join the battle once Hamas launched the missles. 

"Iran’s religious leadership is devoted to exporting its fundamentalist ideology, driven by the pursuit of hegemony and captivated by the thought of its opponents’ violent subjugation." (op cit).

Every justification for war is flawed, because the outcome is mass death. Sometimes you have to fight back even if you don't want war, it takes more time to neutralize waring nations and undercut motivations for war. In a way war is the best problem solving given a situation, and you'd have to back thing up to different antecedents to create peace. 

The waring narratives casts Iran as already planning something, but we honestly have to look at a nation and what they do. What are the circumstances that undercut and stop war, end ongoing wars.

You can see the waring building up (Current Affairs). The article in Current Affairs by Nathan J. Robinson goes into deeper context about the waring articles in the Times, and asks some questions those articles can't answer. It brings in international law, completely ignored in the waring articles. Everyone in the UN wants to relax the situation except Israel and the USA. This is not good. I fear we are heading towards something that will spiral out of control and have negative consequences for everyone. 

Iran and Ahoo Daryaei

A woman was upset when someone ripped her clothes trying to force her to wear her head covering the proper way, and just said fuck it, and stripped down to her underwear. I'm pretty sure she snapped from the harassment, and is probably dead. Iran is the kind of country that does this to people, and then disposes of them. Such a tragic situation. I don't wish to characterize a country by their political system, the people can be really kind, thoughtful, sensitive. My friends there think the government is about making people miserable. Only 1% of the people go to Friday prayers, but the country is controlled by fundamentalist Imams. To me she is saying my body is not a problem, stop making it a problem with your fragility. I will die for that statement. I hope things change there. Found out her name is Ahoo Daryaei

Two imperfect countries, pointing fingers at each other. Iran funds terrorist groups that work to hassle Israel. Israel fights back. Iran launches missiles, Israel fights back. Iran vows to fight back. Don't you see how tit for tat leaves you both weakened? 

I'm sorry but humans don't vote to launch missiles. Get more democracy representation. 

Not saluting Hitler in Germany, not taking feedback on how she dresses in Iran, and standing up to tanks in China.

News Links:

Iran Intl, Jerusalem Post, Reuters

video

Reddit, Reddit

Afghanistan woman dancing in defiance.

Further history:

100,000 Iranian women march against the Hijab Law, Tehran, 1979. 45 years.

Follow up: 

News outlets are calling for her freedom and updates:

11/4 BBC

11/7. People are copying Ahoo Daryaei, walking around in underwear. 

11/8 Protesters in Iran want Ms. Daryaei released YouTube

Guardian article

Found out she has a Wikipedia page. Good links in the bibliography. 

11/8, they protest at the London embassy of Iran:

Twitter

Iran International

11/12/24. Women protest in Belgium in front of the Iranian embassy:

2/3/2025. I found this footage on Reddit.